Contrarily, there are many American values cherished and respected by the Somali people. For instance, hundreds of thousands of Somalis immigrated to the United States for the last decades, while thousands of others are looking forward to make America their second home. It can be said that Somalis envy the American societal and the technological advancement. Other highly respected American values are democracy, rule of law, holding the government accountable for its deeds and freedom of expression amongst others. Moreover, many Somalis are very grateful and appreciative of how the American people stood with them whenever natural and man made disasters happened to them. Likewise, Somalis have enormous confident in US that America will take a leading role in finding lasting solutions for the Somali problems and will generously contribute to setting up the required infrastructure for a modern state.

However, like many other people in the world, a lot of people in Somalia believe that the contemporary American foreign policy has its loopholes. And due to the lack of a political balance and efficiency in solving or preventing the soaring world crisis, many accuse US government of double standards and arrogance. Since it’s the only superpower in the world and in conjunction with the current new world reality, America is expected to responsibly bear global leadership leading to world peace and prosperity. This requires US government to abide by the international law and respect its institutions. Ridiculing the international system when it doesn’t seem to fit to one’s own political interest or to inject money and other political incentives to get what is not right made the international system a mockery and difficult for many people around the world to accept. Moreover, paying money in order to promote favoured politicians, political parties and to influence domestic elections of foreign countries puts world peace in jeopardy. US policy considers foreign countries intervening in American domestic elections as illegal. However, the vice versa is not true in American foreign policy.

Furthermore, any unilateral and pre-emptive strikes against other countries will most certainly be counter productive and will bring disastrous and far reaching negative effects as we’re witnessing today. The world could be a better place if the world leaders commit themselves to implementing what they agreed upon and use a constructive dialogue in solving world problems whilst respecting others’ thoughts , believes and national interests. If the less powerful nations feel threatened or that their national interests are not properly addressed and respected by the more powerful ones, the world is bound for an abyss.

It is essential to acknowledge that the growing anti-American sentiment in the globe, especially in the Muslim world, is the direct consequence of its unbalanced foreign policy. Such a trend could be reversed only by a change in the current political directions and approaches. If somebody boards the wrong train, it is no use for that person to run along the corridor in the other direction. To have allies, American foreign policy should be conducive to world peace and cooperation and should be based on mutual respect and be beneficial to all.

Nowadays, as we are seeing, the world problems are getting complicated, unpredictable and uncertain. Any military muscle and coercive measures seem to be incapable of not bringing the right solutions. It’s widely believed that American pragmatic policy and the engagement in a constructive dialogue could only reverse the status quo. In this context, the making of a reliable friend or a foe is actually in the hands of the Americans themselves. Moreover, many reckon it is immoral and unethical to have a dictator or an oppressor of his own people as a strategic and long-term ally. Such a relationship cannot last long and makes America detestable by the concerned communities. Likewise, such practices are in breach of America’s own values which it advocates and wants to spread all over the world.

Finally, I would like to end with the following wisdom: what cannot be brought by friendly and cordial approach (winning hearts and minds) cannot be achieved by force and intimidation.

The Somali judgment of American goodwill and friendship will most certainly depend on how America helps the country and its people out of the current impasse. If America helps the forces trying to establish a strong central government that has the public backing, it would be the first step to the right direction. To realise this I would urge America:

Over the past years, the international community considered the Somali crisis as a non-priority issue. They adopted a wait and see policy. With shrinking humanitarian aid, it was the Somalis alone who boldly faced the issue and did their homework much better than the international community.

Now is the time for the world community to give a helping hand to this public who triumphed over the warlords and bless their efforts with support and recognition. It is high time that the international community put all her support behind the Somali people and mediates the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of the Islamic Courts (UIC), otherwise all achievements so far will go down the drain. An all inclusive government, capable of restoring law and order and quickly reestablishing all state institutions is the only viable solution.

IGAD countries and specially the frontline states neighboring Somalia have a tremendous influence in the day today affairs of Somalia. Reciprocally, the frontline states are also affected by both war and peace in Somalia. Neighboring countries host millions of Somali refugees who fled their country over the past two decades. For that matter, the frontline states hosted 14 Somali reconciliation conferences. Among the most important of those conferences were: The Arta, Djibouti 2000 conference and the Nairobi, Kenya 2004 one. Unfortunately, most people believe that it is the neighboring countries themselves who contributed a lot to the failure of those reconciliation conferences. There are strong signs that the current Transitional Government established in Kenya is on the brink of collapse like its predecessors. It is sure that there are many forces working for its failure.

For instance, late Kenyan president in a BBC interview flatly stated that the neighboring countries don’t want the re-emergence of a strong Somali central government or finding permanent solutions for Somalia. Rather, they favor a weak and fragmented block of states each rivaling the other and who get their instructions from Adis Ababa or Nairobi. This is the theory of “eliminate your enemy or keep it weak”. Kenyan and Ethiopian suspicions are based on the historical, social and geographical disputes with previous Somali Governments. Many consider funny and cynical that almost all Somali reconciliation conferences are hosted by such countries with negative attitudes towards the rebirth of a Somali Government capable of restoring law and order and safeguarding its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Just an example, the last reconciliation conference in Nairobi was engineered and presided by these two countries. This included setting the timetable, procedures, agenda and most important selecting the delegates. It is widely believed that very few MPs[2] went through the screen without Ethiopian scrutiny and endorsement. This is the main reason why most Somalis question the merits and the credibility of the current TFG and consequently its popularity went down. This conference, which lasted more than two years, stalemated many times. This was due to the conflicting interests of the delegates (Somalis and non-Somalis) and also the hosting countries and institutions that were constantly pulling apart the Somali delegates to ensure their desire outcomes.

It is for these reasons; that the Somalis lost trust in all issues brokered by the frontline states and therefore consider IGAD part of the problem rather than the solution.

The current situation of the country is very alarming. At the time of writing this article (Oct 31st, 2006), country was at the brink of an all-out war. According to the UN secret report leaked to the media last week, there are 6 to 8.000 well equipped Ethiopian soldiers and at least 2000 Eritrean forces deep inside the country and a few km apart. According to government officials in Baidoba, the Ethiopian forces in this area surpass more than 10.000 men with their full war equipments. Likewise, the Ethiopian PM said “we’re technically at war with the UIC”. Islamic Courts leaders in their turn called Jihad against Ethiopians invaders. According to high ranking Government officers in Baidoa, who don’t want their names disclosed, the Ethiopian Arms Chief of Staff came secretly to Baidoba (government administrative base, 250km Southwest of Mogadishu)

According to the military build up on both sides and the mounting tension; the war can break out any time. However, if that war happens, it will be disastrous, long lasting and will have far reaching effects. The conflict already bears its fruits as waves of refugees are reaching Kenya on daily basis. It is widely acknowledged if this war is not prevented in time, it is going to be a regional one with adverse affects. UN, US and other regional organisations expressed concern and asked the neighboring countries not to aggravate the already flammable and dangerous situation. But the question is why the UN and other international organisations (US, Arab league, African Union) do not intervene in time before it’s too late.

U.S State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack (30 Oct) said “Somalia must not become a proxy battleground for warring neighbors Ethiopia and Eritrea.” Warning the possibility of all-out war with its devastating and far reaching affect, McCormack added "I would hope that states don’t try to use Somalia as a proxy for any of their disputes. It would be rather unfortunate for Somalia, as well as other countries in the region.” However, many believe that if US didn’t give Ethiopia "carte blanche", they wouldn’t have sent their troops into this troubled country.

Due to this mounting tension and military build up, in 30th of October, the scheduled 3rd round peace talks between the Transitional Federal Government and the Union of the Islamic Courts in Khartoum have collapsed as already expected, after both parties refused to meet face to face and each one insisted on some pre-conditions. The 4th round has been put off indefinitely. When the UIC emerged in Mogadishu in June 06, this ongoing peace talks were initiated by the Arab League to bring the two parties together. This 3rd round, the chairmanship was shared by The Arab league and Kenya which holds the rotating presidency of the IGAD. But the UIC rejected the Kenyan co-chairmanship with the Arab League, arguing that Kenya is biased because it already backed an African Union plan to deploy East African peacekeepers to Somalia. Likewise, TFG accused the Arab League of favouring the Islamic Courts.

However, most Somalis believe that the conference is hijacked and derailed by some “disturbing factors.” According to many, this is another clear signpost of Arab weakness and attempt to pull the Somalis from their Arab identity. In conclusion, it seems obvious that Ethiopia and its allies came out as the “absolute winner” in this race, while the sincere peace brokers and the Somali people were incapacitated and failed. Failure of the peace talks could lead to a full-scale war that risks engulfing the Horn of Africa region

Perhaps looking from another angle in this issue, we’re experiencing that the world is becoming a global village. In this age of the internet and globalization and market driven economy, all boundaries and restriction of goods as well as peoples movements are going to disappear.

States are going to be replaced by multinational companies. Inter-state and regional co-operations and dependences are becoming crucial. The trend is that many countries are uniting and strengthening each other politically and economically like the European Union. Taking all these into the account, I don’t see any reason why neighbouring countries should worry about the restoration of a strong Somali central government existing side by side with neighbouring countries. Somalia with its rich natural resources and geographical importance, it would be to everybody's advantage to have a stable Somalia as a neighbour. There would have been economic and security cooperation, both which the people in the region would have benefited from.

Likewise, thousands of Somali refugees which are now a burden on those countries could have returned to their country of origins. Unfortunately, it seems that the leaders of the region are not interesting in creating sustainable peace and prosperity for their folks, but rather choice for a never ending war, destruction and severe poverty.

Any and all personal opinions expressed in the Dalmar.org are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Dalmar

1] This regional club consists of 7 countries. These are Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya and Eritrea.

The Speaker is the one of those few who went through the net without Ethiopian approval [2]